Now that the Super Bowl is just around the corner, it’s time to place some wagers.
But before you do, take a look at these expert tips that should make betting the Super Bowl a little easier.
Go with the flow
Professional handicapper David Malinsky creates a framework for how he thinks the game will flow.
This is something that can be done easily by a recreational gambler. Simply, ask yourself how you believe the game will be played out.
Will the Colts’ defence dominate? Or will the Saints’ offence keep rolling?
Once you’ve determined how you believe the game will flow, then take a quick glance at the list of prop bets to see how they compare to your perception of how the game will be played.
“If we think that one team’s pass defence will dominate, then we look to play against the opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers, for instance,” said Malinsky. “If we believe one team can get to a big lead, and may begin running the ball much more in the second half with the lead, we can look for their best running back to get a lot of carries, and hence a lot of yards.
“So we take our own game handicap first, and look for props that can fit back towards those projections.”
Stats that matter
A lot has changed since Week 1 of the regular season.
So why worry about stats that accrued way back in September?
“You should ignore regular-season averages,” suggested professional handicapper Teddy Sevransky. “Concentrate only on what has happened lately, in the postseason. Many prop lines are set using regular season averages, but sharp bettors know full well that what happened in September, October and November is completely irrelevant when it comes to a game being played in February.”
Six things to consider
• The line on the Super Bowl is not always dead-on. In fact, 20 of the 43 Super Bowls have been decided by more than eight points (one possession) of the spread.
• The Super Bowl line has been off by an average of 11.76 points in the 43 games.
• Remember, oddsmakers set the line and total in an effort to get equal action on both sides. It does not necessarily reflect who will win the game and by how many.
• Underdogs have covered in six of the last eight Super Bowls.
• Super Bowl favourites are 23-20 ATS all-time.
• Totals for the last 23 Super Bowls have been off an average of 13.1 points.
• The total has gone over in 15 of the last 23 Super Bowls.
• The favourite and the over has been a winning parlay in 10 of the last 22 Super Bowls.