Indianapolis pass offence vs. New Orleans pass defence
The No. 2-ranked passing attack in the NFL will go after the New Orleans secondary early and often on Sunday. After a slow start in the first quarter of the AFC title game, MVP Peyton Manning hit his stride against a Jets defence that led the NFL in passing defence during the regular season.
The Saints finished 26th in the league in passing defence this season. The unit allowed Brett Favre to pass for 310 yards in the NFC Championship game. Big plays (third in NFL in interceptions this season) could be vital to the New Orleans defence after the squad came away with a couple of critical Favre passes in the win over the Vikings.
New Orleans rush offence vs. Indianapolis rush defence
While it might be tempting for the Saints to try to match Indy’s air game, New Orleans must remain balanced on offence. The sixth-best rush offence in the NFL can keep Manning on the sidelines for a few extra minutes in the game.
Even at full strength, the Colts rush defence (24th in NFL) is pretty marginal. With veteran standouts Bob Sanders (out) and Dwight Freeney (questionable) banged up, the unit will be challenged by a deep Saints backfield.
New Orleans kick return offence vs. Indianapolis kick return defence
The Saints ranked No. 4 in the league in kickoff return average this season. With the Colts offence likely to score on plenty of occasions, the Saints special teams should have several chances to provide a spark for the club’s offence.
Indianapolis is 31st in the NFL in kickoff return defence. In their Super Bowl win three years ago in Miami, the Colts overcame a kickoff return for a score by Chicago’s Devin Hester on the opening play of the game in a 29-17 win.
AFC vs. NFC
Entering Super Bowl XLIV, the NFC holds a narrow 22-21 edge over the AFC. While the overall record indicates plenty of parity in the game, the Super Bowl has been marked by three major streaks.
Over the 1968-80 seasons, the AFC went 11-2. From 1984-96, the NFC reeled off 13 (10-3 ATS) straight wins. Now, the AFC is back in charge with a 9-3 (6-6 ATS) mark over the last 12 contests.
Elite quarterbacks have been a key part of the run. John Elway, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning have combined for all but one of the AFC wins during the run.
Experience vs. Inexperience
For the 20th time, a franchise making its Super Bowl debut will be facing an opponent that has prior experience in the game.
Only four teams (‘74 Steelers, ‘86 Giants, ‘00 Ravens and ‘02 Buccaneers) have won a Super Bowl debut in these prior situations. In the 19 games, the franchises with Super Bowl experience have posted a 12-7 ATS mark.