Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks (-8.5, 148.5)
The top two teams in the Big 12 will go head-to-head Wednesday, with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament quite possibly hanging in the balance.
This will be the second meeting between these two in-state rivals this season. Kansas took the first in an 81-79 overtime thriller.
History lesson
Kansas has beaten up on its weaker sibling in recent years, taking eight of the last nine matchups SU and six of those games ATS. Kansas State did cover the number as a 3.5-point underdog in their first meeting this season.
The last two times these two have hooked up at Allen Fieldhouse it’s been no contest with the Jayhawks winning by 14 and 16 points. Kansas State hasn’t won on this floor since January of 2006.
Number one seed in doubt?
Kansas has arguably been the best team in the nation for much of the season, certainly the best the Big 12 has to offer. But the Jayhawks have hit a few speed bumps in recent weeks.
The Jayhawks lost for the first time in conference play Saturday and it wasn’t close as Oklahoma State jumped ahead by 16 points before halftime and never looked back.
Their backers have reason to be concerned. Kansas has covered the spread just once in its last nine games, falling to 10-16 ATS in lined contests this season.
Head coach Bill Self isn’t ready to push the panic button just yet.
“I don’t think the thing is broken,” Self told reporters. “But I do think we need to really evaluate the things we take great pride in to be a good team, especially this time of year.”
Home dominance
The Jayhawks haven’t lost at home since December 13th, 2008. Oddly enough, that loss came against an Atlantic 10 team, Massachusetts.
To find their last home loss in Big 12 play, you would have to go all the way back to February 2007. That was when they fell 69-66 to Texas A&M.
Kansas has posted a perfect 17-0 SU record at Allen Fieldhouse this season, but is just 6-8 ATS in lined home games.
The Jayhawks’ defensive play has been second to none at home, holding opponents to just over 62 points per game on 36.5 percent shooting.
Clawing their way back
There weren’t too many Wildcat believers back in January, as Kansas State started Big 12 play with three losses in its first seven games.
Since then, KSU has reeled off seven straight victories, most recently avenging a conference-opening loss to Missouri Saturday. Kansas State missed 19 consecutive shots at one point, but still managed to pull out a 10-point victory to improve to 11-3 in Big 12 play.
Wildcats coach Frank Martin believes his team is battle tested entering Wednesday’s showdown.
“That was a drag-it-out fight right there and I was proud of our guys,” Martin told the media. “A game like (this) shows we’ve come a long ways. These types of games where we don’t make shots once took our spirit away.”
Defence first
Kansas State’s defence has played a major role in its turnaround this season.
The Wildcats are allowing 68 points per game but have tightened things up lately, giving up just over 64 points a night over their last five contests. Only two of their last seven opponents have scored more than 68 points.
Jacob Pullen may be the offensive sparkplug, but he was quick to praise his team’s defensive play following Saturday’s win.
“As a team we did a great job of not bailing out on our defence. Usually when a team is not shooting the ball well, they mellow out on defence. Our team did a great job of realizing our defence was the only way to keep us in it.”
Pullen is averaging an impressive 18.5 ppg and 3.8 assists per game this season.
Trends to note
Since starting the season 1-2 ATS, the Wildcats have gone 15-5 ATS over their last 20 lined games.
They’ve been listed as the underdog in each of the last 23 meetings in this series and have gone 6-17 ATS over that period.
Kansas owns a tremendous 22-10 ATS record in its last 32 games against opponents that own a winning percentage of at least .600.
However, the Jayhawks are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games against opponents that sport a winning road record.