With all the commotion over the expansion and contraction, it’s easy to overlook just how good the Big 12 could be this year. You guys can bet the mighty SEC with its inflated lines; we’ll take the deeper, undervalued Big 12.
The betting value in the Big 12 isn’t with the top teams. Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska are each considered to have BCS-bowl potential. We’d like to see some improvement from the Cornhuskers’ quarterback play before we put them in the same class as the Sooners and Longhorns. But those three powers are receiving enough hype that it’ll be tough to squeeze a loose line out of oddsmakers.
The second tier of Big 12 teams, however, should provide plenty of value. Teams like Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri, Texas Tech and even lowly Colorado have an abundance of returning talent, including proven quarterbacks, but aren’t popping up in preseason rankings.
Even the teams picked to finish at the bottom of the conference—Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State and Kansas—could produce positive ATS results. The amount of negative publicity those four teams are receiving in the preseason will make them big underdogs, too big in some cases.
In its last season before being reduced to 10 teams, the Big 12 is as strong as ever. In fact, when it comes to betting value, the Big 12 may have more than any other conference.
Big 12 odds and ends
(ATS records from last three seasons)
Oklahoma Sooners
ATS: 21-18 (Home: 12-5. Away: 7-10)
Thing to remember: The Sooners entered last season with an extremely inexperienced offensive line. It forced offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson to slow down the pace. Now, OU’s line has 42 starts under its belt. And, with quarterback Landry Jones more comfortable running the Sooner hurry-up offence, look for Oklahoma to rev things back up this year.
When you throw in that the Sooners return just five defensive starters and have major concerns at both cornerback spots, you can expect a season full of shootouts in Norman. Playing at a similar pace in 2008, OU went over the total in 11 of 13 games.
Texas Longhorns
ATS: 21-19 (Home: 10-9. Away: 7-7)
Thing to remember: Don’t be surprised if teams have some success running the ball against the Longhorns. Texas was already thin at defensive tackle, before redshirt freshman Derek Johnson elected to transfer this summer. Now, coaches have to shuffle the defensive front and move ends inside.
Texas A&M Aggies
ATS: 15-22 (Home: 10-10. Away: 5-9)
Thing to remember: Two sophomores and a freshman are projected to start on the Aggie offensive line. That’s never a good sign.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
ATS: 18-17 (Home: 9-7. Away: 8-6)
Thing to remember: Tommy Tuberville’s track record suggests we won’t see a huge season from the Red Raiders. He went 5-5 straight up and 4-6 ATS in his first year at Ole Miss and the Tigers went 5-6 straight up and 4-6 ATS in his first year at Auburn.
Baylor Bears
ATS: 17-16 (Home: 7-9. Away: 9-7)
Thing to remember: Coach Art Briles saw drastic improvement in his third year at Houston. Running Briles’ wide-open passing attack, the Cougars averaged eight more points a game in his third season. The return of dynamic quarterback Robert Griffin, who tore his ACL in Week 3 last season, will also help.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
ATS: 20-16 (Home: 10-8. Away: 9-6)
Thing to remember: After consecutive 9-4 seasons, a major drop off is expected for the Cowboys, who return a league-low eight starters.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
ATS: 19-20 (Home: 9-13. Away: 7-7)
Thing to remember: No matter how good the returning parts are, losing a player the caliber of Ndamukong Suh will be difficult. Senior quarterback Zac Lee is the projected starter, but he didn’t do enough last year or in the spring to earn the coaching staff’s full confidence.
Missouri Tigers
ATS: 19-19 (Home: 5-10. Away: 9-3)
Thing to remember: For a team returning 16 starters including a star quarterback in Blaine Gabbert and leading rusher in Derrick Washington, the Tigers aren’t getting much love from the media. Under coach Gary Pinkel, Mizzou is 20-13 ATS against non-conference competition.
Colorado Buffaloes
ATS: 17-19 (Home: 9-8. Away: 6-10)
Thing to remember: Dan Hawkins has a league-high 17 returning starters to help cool off his hot seat.
Kansas Jayhawks
ATS: 21-14 (Home: 10-7. Away: 7-6)
Thing to remember: Turner Gill, Kansas’ new head coach, had an instant impact at Buffalo. Even though the Bulls went 2-10 straight up in his first season, they exceeded oddsmakers’ expectations and posted a 7-5 ATS mark. During his four years at Buffalo, the Bulls went 28-20 ATS. But rising to the top of the MAC isn’t quite as difficult as mastering the Big 12.
Kansas State Wildcats
ATS: 16-16 (Home: 7-8. Away: 7-8)
Thing to remember: Coach Bill Snyder is 36-22 ATS against the Big 12 since 2000, the best mark of any coach in the league.
Iowa State Cyclones
ATS: 19-15 (Home: 9-7. Away: 9-7)
Thing to remember: The Cyclones have been a great bet when stepping out of conference. In the last 10 seasons, Iowa State is 21-13 ATS in non-conference play.