Sometimes it is what it is.
In regards to handicapping, that tidbit of deep analysis basically means don’t over-analyze things.
Take MLB ballparks, for example. Some have reputations as hitters’ parks. Others favor pitchers.
According to ESPN’s Park Factor, a statistical rating that compares rate of stats at home to the rate of stats on the road, Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Great American Ball Park, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington and Chase Field are the best hitters’ parks in baseball.
Heading into Tuesday’s games, those five stadiums have produced 119 overs compared to 94 unders.
On the other side of the coin, Park Factor suggests AT&T Park, Tropicana Field, Safeco Field, Citi Field and the Oakland Coliseum are the five best pitchers’ parks.
Heading into Tuesday’s games, those stadiums had produced 89 overs and 129 unders.
See, sometimes it really is what it is.
Other times it’s not.
Florida’s Sun Life Stadium rarely gets included in the discussion of best hitters’ parks. But right now it’s produced a much higher rate of overs than Colorado’s Coors Field - the most hitter-friendly park in the game.
For years, Dodger Stadium has been considered a pitchers’ park. But this year, it has produced 30 overs to only 22 unders. Only Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park has produced a higher percentage of overs.
And look at San Diego’s Petco Park, considered the premier pitchers’ park in the game by most. However, this year it has produced 25 overs to 20 unders.
Here’s a quick breakdown of a few of the over and under-producing stadiums in baseball this year.
Over machines
Yankee Stadium: 28-19
Yankees games have gone over 13 out of 18 times when the wind is blowing from the south, right to left.
Great American Ball Park: 29-17
Over is 7-0 when the wind blows out to left, from the west.
Dodger Stadium: 30-22
The wind almost always blows out to center, but rarely very hard. Still, overs are 19-10 in these conditions.
Under-producing machines
Busch Stadium: 18-28
Since opening in 2006, the Cardinals’ stadium has produced 38 more unders than over.
Citi Field: 17-28
The ball has trouble getting out of the Mets’ new park no matter which way the wind is blowing. In fact, with the wind blowing out this year, games have stayed under the total 17 of 26 games.
AT&T Park: 17-24
The Giants’ park’s reputation for windy conditions has led to over-inflation of the total. Games have stayed under the total 19 of 31 times the wind has been blowing out, including all six times it has been blowing out to right.