It was a low-scoring weekend for the opening slate of NFL action when eight of 13 Sunday games finished under the total.
Both Monday night games went over the projected total leaving under bettors with a modest 9-7 advantage heading into Week 2. The average combined score was 40 points per game.
The Week 2 board features totals ranging from the mid-30s to the high 40s. The Monday night game between the Cowboys and Eagles has the highest number, currently at 46.5. Both teams put up big points in Week 1.
Not surprisingly, the Raiders and Chiefs, a pair of teams which struggled to score, have the lowest total. The number came out at 35.5.
The game I'll focus on this week is the Falcons vs. Bucs that has a total of 37 ½. I suggest taking a strong look at the under in this matchup even though these teams both saw their opener finish above the total.
The Bucs' game against the Saints snuck above the total with 44 combined points, while the Falcons combined with the Lions for a whopping 54. Those results have helped keep this week's total above the key number of 37, which I feel has provided us with solid value.
A look at the recent meetings in this series show that all four games from the past two seasons produced 40 points or fewer. Those four games averaged just 29.5 points.
Give the Falcons credit for their opening day win. Everything went right and rookie QB Matt Ryan even threw a touchdown on his very first pass. That being said, Ryan and the Falcons will likely find things quite a bit tougher in their first road game.
The Bucs have gone under the total in seven their last 11 home games and they've held six of their last nine opponents at Raymond James Stadium to 14 points or fewer. Tampa Bay has also seen the under go 6-2 in its last eight home games played in the month of September.
Looking back further, we find the under at a profitable 38-20 in Tampa Bay's last 58 September games. The Bucs ran the ball effectively last week but coach Jon Gruden became impatient with the rushing attack a little too early and they ended up throwing more passes than he probably would have liked. With starting quarterback Jeff Garcia banged-up, Brian Griese is expected to get the nod this week.
Regardless, I expect the Bucs to feature a larger percentage of run plays than they did last week. As for the Falcons, they threw just 13 passes to go along with their 42 plays on the ground against the Lions. With Ryan still learning the offense, we should see another heavy dose of the run. As you know, running plays generally help to keep the clock moving.
The Bucs have shown a tendency to play relatively low-scoring games when listed as favorites. The under is 81-51-1 (61 percent) the last 133 times Tampa Bay has been favored.
Look for this contest to prove low scoring with the under improving to 16-5 the last 21 times that the Falcons played away from Atlanta.